With 600 behind him, can Alex Rodriguez catch Bonds' 762?

By Seth Livingstone, USA TODAY

Now that Alex Rodriguez has 600 home runs in his rearview mirror, how many might the Yankees third baseman expect to hit?

"Six hundred home runs — that's ridiculous. That's a lot of home runs, man," says teammate Nick Swisher.

"But 700, eight, nine, 1,000 — I don't know. He's such a talented player, and with the way he takes care of himself, anything's possible."

Rodriguez turned 35 on July 27. No other player has reached 600 before his 36th birthday, although Yankees icon Babe Ruth did it in fewer games — 2,044 to 2,227.

VOTE: Will Rodriguez catch Barry Bonds?

AS IT HAPPENED: A-Rod hits 600th home run

WEIGHING IN: Bonds, Aaron on A-Rod's 600th HR

BRENNAN: Congrats, A-Rod, on HR No. 444

LOPRESTI: Muted cheers for A-Rod's 600th

BIGGEST BLASTS: A-Rod's milestone home runs

But the numbers indicate that Rodriguez's body might already be in decline and that catching all-time leader Barry Bonds (762), let alone becoming the first player to reach 800, might not be as easy as it once appeared.

For one thing, Rodriguez is dealing with a surgically repaired hip that limited him to 124 games in 2009 when he hit 30 home runs, his lowest total in the past 12 seasons.

This year, homers are down across baseball and Rodriguez has hit 17, putting him on pace for 26 at season's end.

In early July, Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson, a special adviser for the Yankees, predicted Rodriguez "is going to hit 800 home runs."

A few weeks later, Jackson backed off just a bit.

"He's got to stay healthy," Jackson said. "You don't know how long his hip is going to stay healthy. Right now, I don't know if he's going to make 800.

"With the pace he had before the hip surgery, I would say yes. But I have my doubts now. It would really (depend) on how he physically holds up because he'd have to hit 35 a year (to do it in six seasons) — and he was putting up 40 a year, 50 a year."

Rodriguez, who hit 57 homers for the Texas Rangers in 2002 — the middle year of a three-year period in which he admitted using banned performance-enhancing drugs — and 54 for the Yankees when he won his third American League MVP in 2007, has seven years remaining on a $275 million, 10-year contract. From 2001 to '07 he averaged 47 homers. He's totaled 82 homers in the three seasons since.

"(No. 600) is definitely a special number," Rodriguez said Wednesday. "I'm certainly proud of it and will treasure it. Many, many years from today, I will be able to reflect a lot better."

Besides, Rodriguez struggled through a 12-game drought to hit the milestone home run. Going forward, he says he would rather focus on passing individuals than round numbers.

"The real milestone is when you start passing the all-time greats," Rodriguez said. "As long as it doesn't have a zero at the end, I think I'm going to be OK."

Teammates seem to think Rodriguez has plenty of spring left.

"For Alex to (reach 600) at a young age and for a milestone like this not to be enough for him just shows his competitiveness and his drive to be the best," says first baseman Mark Teixeira, who leads the Yankees with 23 home runs. "I hope to be standing here in five or six years and have Alex get to 800 — and I think everyone expects that for him."

***

March to 600 has been relentless

Milestone Alex Rodriguez homers (by date, opponent and age):

HR	Date	Pitcher, team	Age
1	June 12, 1995	Tom Gordon, Royals	19 years, 10 months, 16 days
100	Aug. 12, 1998	Nerio Rodriguez, Blue Jays	23 years, 16 days
200	May 12, 2001	Jon Garland, White Sox	25 years, 9 months, 15 days
300	April 2, 2003	Ramon Ortiz, Angels	27 years, 8 months, 6 days
400	June 8, 2005	Jorge de la Rosa, Brewers	29 years, 10 months, 12 days
500	Aug. 4, 2007	Kyle Davis, Royals	32 years, 8 days
600	Aug. 4, 2010	Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays	35 years, 8 days